Ten-year Japanese yields are 0.08%.
We found that climate change has affected yields in many places.
The anomaly of these simultaneous moves — falling stock prices and rising yields — is illustrated in the chart below.
Yields are a gauge of expected returns.
Yields might plausibly spike to 6% or more.
Assume for a moment that we can hold gilt yields constant.
Central banks have also held bond yields down, both directly and indirectly.
Pundits detected a bubble, screaming that yields bore no relation to economic fundamentals.
Rising bond yields can themselves stoke worries about a country's ability to service its debt.
Today they talk of the “Fed model”, which divides earnings yields by Treasury-bond yields.
In any case, other things being equal, lower gilt yields will drag AA yields down with them.
"As a result of the recent equity sell-off, dividend yields have dramatically increased," Kevin Brown, an analyst, said.
Real yields, which subtract inflation from bonds' nominal yields, are still negative across all maturities.
So even when the outbreak is over, negative yields in Europe and elsewhere will continue to pull down yields in the US.
German ten-year government-bond yields are more than a percentage point lower than the equivalent Treasury yields in America.
For example, we estimated that climate change was reducing global rice yields by 0.3% and wheat yields by 0.9% on average each year.
Financials and other cyclical sectors like autos, industrials and materials will be the key beneficiaries of rising yields, because of their close correlation to bond yields.
In some markets, dividend yields are higher than government-bond yields; in Britain, for example, the FTSE All-Share index yields 4% whereas 10-year gilts offer just 1.7%.
As the chart shows, since 1999 ten-year Treasury-bond yields have followed a remarkably similar path to that taken by Japanese bond yields after that country's economic bubble burst in 1990.
Since the start of 2016, ten-year Treasury yields have dropped from 2.27% to 1.59%, British gilt yields of the same maturity have fallen from 1.96% to 1.24%, and the equivalent German yields have plunged from 0.63% into negative territory.
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